Flying As a Career

For many students setting off on their commercial pilot training, they are the first in their family to contemplate such a career.  All students have internal motivation for this choice, but most do not have external references to follow—they do not know anyone personally who fly for a living.  This brochure is designed to paint a picture of professional flying—the practical side of personnel licensing—and, in particular, the all-important subject of career progression.  The material in this section—which is based primarily on statistics—is derived from what may be described as a phenomenal study of professional flying in 2001 by the Air Transport Association of Canada.  The resultant publication—entitled Human Resource Study of Commercial Pilots in Canada—is based on interview and survey data derived from professional pilots, air operators, flight-training institutes, and student pilots.  Some of their findings are summarized below:

Canada’s Commercial Aviation Industry1

When the study was conducted, 1177 air operator certificates had been issued in Canada.

 

When the last count was conducted by Transport Canada in 1999, there were 23,964 professional pilot licences (Commercial Pilot and Airline Transport Pilot Licences) issued, but a 1996 census by the Canadian Government found that 11,300 individuals identified themselves as active professional pilots.

 

The total number of professional licences grew by 2168 between 1998 and 1999.

 

The average age of professional pilot license-holders was even split between those over 40-years of age, and those less than 40 years.

 

Female pilots accounted for approximately 3% of professional licence-holders, with 54% of these reporting they had some university education.  In contrast, 38% of the male license-holder reported some university education.

 

 

 

Career Progression2

It was found that most air operators regard general attitude as the most important factor in assessing pilots for employment, with interpersonal and communications skills, and compatibility with the organization’s culture, ranking second and third, respectively.

 

With respect to the experience and education requirements applied to pilot selection, 17% of air operators reported they have raised the requirements, and 16% report they have lowered the requirement.

 

 

Almost 70% of professional pilots reported obtained their multi-engine rating and instrument rating within 12 months of receiving their Commercial Pilot License.3

 

The majority of professional pilots (59%) reported obtaining their Airline Transport Pilot License between 2 to 4 years after receiving their Commercial Pilot License. 

 

Approximately 31% of professional pilots reported that their first job in the industry was as a flight instructor.

 

Approximately 71% of professional pilots reported success at obtaining employment as a pilot within 12 months after receiving their Commercial Pilot Licence.

 

 

 

The majority of air operators and professional pilots

reported that personal initiative was the primary factor

that affected career advancement.4

 

Approximately 20% of air operators reported they

experienced an annual turn-over rate in their pilot pool 

of 30%.

 

About 9% of pilots expect to leave their profession,

and 90% of these respondents expect to do so in the

next 3 years.

 

Income5

The majority of professional pilots reported their

annual incomes in excess of $65,000, while just over

25% reported earnings less than $40,000 per year.

 

Approximately 42% of airline pilots and 28% of corporate pilots earn annual incomes in excess of $100,000.

 

Among air operators, 25% reported that they use a special start rate for entry-level pilots.

 

A high level of satisfaction with respect to working conditions was reported by the majority of professional pilots.

 

One third of the professional pilot reported “good” or “excellent” relations with managers, while an equal portion reported “poor” or “very poor” relations.

 

Future Skills6

Some observers believe the aviation industry is on the verge of a technological revolution, with changes within the next few years being far greater than was experienced in the preceding 20 or 30 years.

 

NASA is predicting a major revolution in aircraft design.

 

Others predict the appearance of new-generation ultra-large aircraft, combined with a new fleet of small-capacity, long-haul transport.  Aircraft control will be computer based (i.e., Flight Management System) and likely entail glass cockpits.

 

Of the air operators, between 24% and 45% felt that there was a shortcoming in pilot skills with respect to technical and non-technical skills.

 

One-half of all airline operators felt there where pilot skill and knowledge deficiencies in the areas of GPS, de-icing and surface contamination, and navigation; 60% reported deficiencies in the area of cockpit-systems management.7

Labour Market

The aviation industry is described as pro-cyclical, meaning it tends to rise and fall with greater amplitude than is experienced by the general economy (as measured by the Gross Domestic Product).

 

Worldwide, air travel has doubled since 1985; in Canada, the number of passenger movements grew by 2.7% between 1990 and 1999.

 

In 1999, passenger movements in Canada were 85.4 million; this is projected to reach 98.2 million in 2004, 115.8 million in 2009, and 132.2 million by 2014.

 

Canadian international passenger traffic is expected to increase by 4.8% during the period 1999-2004.

Between 1999 and 2004, air cargo is projected to increase by 5%.

 

The number of retiring professional pilots is expected to increased markedly in the next few years.

 

To the above findings can be added the text of a presentation recently made by Glenn K. Priestley, Vice President of the Air Transportation Association of Canada, to the British Columbian Aviation Council regarding future projections of the job prospects for Canadian Pilots.  The text of this presentation is reproduced below:

 

Challenge and Solutions to Airline Pilot Supply and Skill Requirements8

Aviation has long played a prominent role in the life of Canada and in the development of its socio-economic fabric.  And, by all accounts, the prominence, the importance of that role will reach new heights in the days and years ahead.  In the age of communication, personal travel, and interlocking economies, the demands placed on Canada’s air transportation system are sure to intensify.

 

An upsurge in the demand for air services of all kinds, projected on a global basis to increase by 4 to 5 percent a year, will undoubtedly create new job opportunities in many sectors of the industry.  While fortunate for many, this positive outlook may have a downside unless properly managed.  Turnover rates by pilots in the industry—already high—may accelerate even further, adding to the increased cost for operators.  Even more worrisome for some is the growing potential—some would say, likelihood—for pilot shortages, perhaps not in terms of sheer numbers, but in terms of the experience and skill sets desired.  No longer able to draw upon the military to the extent they once did, airlines have been increasingly turning to the regionals for new pilots leaving the latter to scramble for replacements elsewhere.  Some operators down the line have already experienced shortages or found it necessary to lower their hiring criteria.  Unless countermeasures are implemented, prospects for more acute shortages in some sectors of the next 5 years seem plausible in light of the anticipated surge in the number of airline pilots that will be retiring.

 

Alongside these demographic, market-driven developments other trends, with arguably greater implications for commercial pilots and the industry have been leaving their mark.  An extensive array of new technology how coming on stream in the industry’s ground-based, air borne, and satellite infrastructure is having an increasingly major impact on all aspects of the industry—none more so than the evolving need for new skills . . . skills to master the full potential offered by theses new avionics and skill to fly the aircraft of tomorrow now on drawing boards at NASA and leading manufacturers around the world.  There will always be a need for traditional “stick and rudder” skills, but in an era of computers and the glass cockpit, pilots will need to become, in effect, managers—managers of systems, managers of information, and yes, even managers of people.  The recent emphasis placed on so-called “soft skills,” everything from crew resource management to decision-making abilities, is sure to continue.

 

As though all of this were not enough, for Canadian pilots, pressure for new skills is coming from several other directions.  Some, from regulatory changes affecting training and operational requirements; others, from the ‘globalization’ of the industry.  Against a backdrop of liberalized trade arrangements, “open skies” accords and strategic alliances among air operators, even pilot associations, the industry has been actively pursuing the “harmonization” of licensing requirements and the standardization of some aspects of training.  When and if adopted, the standards will effectively set a new bar for all pilots around the world interested in flying on the international stage or in job opportunities abroad.  Given current efforts in the United States and in Europe to revamp and elevate their skills and training requirement, (the standards are) . . likely to be high . . .

The Commercial Pilot Labour Market

The supply of pilots in the Canadian industry is conditioned by several broad factors.  Love of flying, perhaps the least easy to define, is clearly a strong motivating factor.  Other factors, with broader application across the labour market, also clearly apply.  The pay in the industry, the prospects of employment at the time of initial entry, the prestige associated with being an airline pilot, and the financial commitments and risks associated with entering the industry are also important.

 

The demand side of the market is more complex than it at first appears, because pilots typically fly for several employers and in a number of aircraft types in the course of a career.

Demand for Commercial Pilots

Multi-tiered market

The demand side of the market consists of a series of markets for pilots with different skills, experience levels and training.  Pilots tend to progress to aircraft of greater complexity and size, and wage levels for the largest and most complex aircraft are considerable higher than those for the smaller types.

 

It is unusual for a pilot to progress directly from the completion of a commercial pilot licence to a flying job at a major carrier.  Instead, pilots build hours as flying instructors, or by flying small single crew aircraft.  They then progress to first officer positions on larger commuter aircraft, and eventually to captaincy.  For those destined for the major airlines, the experience gained in these sorts of operations is important in securing an airline job.  Major airlines prefer significant experience, demonstrated by hours of flight logged and pilot-in-command time, experience in a multi-crew cockpit, experience and type ratings on turbojets or high performance turboprops, along with military experience or academic training.  Since the market is competitive, it is important for career-minded pilots to broaden their marketability on a number of dimensions.

 

The other important facet of this multi-tiered market is that commercial pilot licensing is, itself, only the beginning of a process.  Airlines, ultimate consumer of this training (at the high end of the wage market, anyway), are far removed from basic training.  They do not conduct it or pay for it, and the aircrew they hire are generally assessed more on the quality of their career experience as commercial pilots than on the methodology employed in CPL training.  The licence is prerequisite, not the basis for assessment.

Early Employers

This is not true for the early employers of a commercial pilot.  Some airlines hire pilots with the minimum qualifications and then train them, starting in non-flying jobs, and on smaller single-pilot aircraft or as first officers on slightly larger types.  These employers include “bush” operations, small regional carriers and flying schools (where the newly graduated CPL students serve as instructors).  These operators tend to be very conscious of the quality of the training new pilots have received.

 

Often, informal networks aid pilots’ careers.  The training establishment may have turned out good pilots in past, or pilots currently flying in the airline may recommend a new hire, based on their relationship with the institution that trained them.  On the whole, these networks remain informal in Canada, but more formal relationships between training establishments are being developed at the “nation-wide” institutes in the US, a trend that may accelerate in Canada as well.

 

A middle level of carriers require a minimum of 1000 hours of flying time for new hires.  This arises from insurance requirements and because of minimum regulatory requirements for single pilot IFR operations.  While some pilots choose to remain in bush or regional operations because of preferences for particular types of flying or lifestyle choices, the higher wage levels of the mainline carriers create an incentive to move on, once certain levels of experience are reached.  In this regard, it is important to recognize that the mainline carriers “pull” pilots through the system.  Increased demand by the mainline carriers is largely met by skimming the most experienced captains from the regional operations.  The regional carriers respond by hiring less experienced pilots and promoting their existing firt officers.

Growth at regional airlines also contributes to demand, but growth at the mainline carriers creates turnover at the regionals, and in turn, at the Tier Three carriers.  This creates demand for ab initio commercial pilots.

 

The foregoing discussion should make one point clear.  The assertion that a pilot shortage exists cannot be made without qualification.  While the markets are related, there are numerous consumers of pilot services, each with different requirements.

 

Demand for pilots is a “pull” phenomenon in which the most important driver is hiring at the major airlines.  These companies have generally required pilots to have a large amount of training and experience, which effectively requires long periods in the industry.  For this reason, the apparent levelling off of new licence holders may imply future shortfalls.

Demographics

A major issue in the labour market for pilots is the age of the existing pilot population.  Since experience in terms of hours flown is necessarily correlated with age, the representation of any given age cohort in the pilot population is important.  Airlines must constantly plan for the retirement of their most senior pilots.  In a steady state, with no growth, this would be analogous to a flow of personnel over time but, as we have seen above, where growth occurs, more pilots are drawn into the system, and significant hiring at any one period implies that this cohort will have to be replaced, in similar numbers, in a later period.

This is an important consideration in the coming years, because the phenomenal growth of air travel associated with the introduction of jet technology and later deregulation has resulted in an aging pilot demographic.  The situation may be more acute in other countries, but the Canadian pilot demographic has some implications, as well.

 

The Commercial Pilots Survey reveals that 47 per cent of the active commercial aeroplane pilots are 40 or older.  These active pilots will retire in the next 20 years in increasing numbers.  What is less clear is whether enough younger pilots are entering the industry to replace them.  The industry needs qualified pilots both to replace an aging pilot population, and to accommodate growth in air travel.

The “pilot shortage,” to the extent that it exists, is partly a demographic trend that is mirrored in many other sectors.  In Canada, birth rates are at levels that imply that population growth is associated more with immigration than the “replacement rate” of the existing population. 9

Pilot Demographics at Air Canada

The unofficial statistics for projected retirements at Air Canada indicate that hiring will be significant in the coming decades.  The peak of retirements will be in the 2003-2008 period.  Replacement of retiring pilots at Air Canada will start to pick up.  This implies a steady demand for pilots driven by demographics, and does not include the demand that may arise from growing the business.

Current US Pilot Shortage

The current US situation is useful to show the effects of a pilot shortage.  On one level, the robust and long-lived economic expansion has led to historically low levels of unemployment and a skills shortage in many industries.  In this context, the airline industry’s plight is shared with sectors such as the high technology industry.

 

The US pilot shortage is exacerbated by other factors.  First, a smaller number of military pilots are entering the workforce.  This reflects lower numbers being trained because of force reduction, but also increased retention by the military because of improved incentives.

 

Until 1995, the majority of airline pilots were military trained, and a high number still learned their trade in military service.  The US industry must now begin to replace an aging cohort of Viet Nam-era pilots.

The second factor that affects the US industry is the rapid expansion of regional airlines.  These carriers fly smaller aircraft on thin routes and have both stimulated demand for air travel and increased the prospects of advancement for young pilots.

 

These two factors have led to speculation that the United Sates will increase the number of “green cards” available to Canada pilots.  To date, there is no evidence that this will occur, and while it is unwise to predict the future moods of lawmakers, there are a number of institutional and political barriers to such a change.  Lawmakers would have to be convinced that there was no viable alternate course, and it is not clear that there is any such consensus.  The current economic slowdown may also mitigate any “pilot shortage” that exists, at least in the short run.

 

It is also possible that lawmakers will be successful in obtaining some relaxation of the mandatory retirement age for pilots.  While the FAA is resisting any change, some Congressmen and Senators are of the opinion that the mandatory retirement age of 60 is too stringent in the light of improved health and increased live expectancies.10  The current debate in Washington is fuelled as much by politics as economics, and is beyond the scope of this report.

 

Current demand conditions in the US market have led to lowering of hiring criteria at some regional carriers.  Pilots are being recruited with relatively less experience than in former years.  Where regional airlines would normally have required 1500 hours experience for an entry level first officer, flight training institutes in the US report recent hirings of their graduates with only 750-800 hours for first-officer positions on regional jets.

 

One flight-school operator mentioned that the major airlines were not complaining of shortages because they could recruit the most senior pilots from regional carriers.  The shortages were at the regional level.  The multi-tiered market for pilots allows short run supply shortages to occur in one part of the market without directly affecting others.

Findings from Interview of Airline Managers

In the survey conducted in the late spring of 2000, operators were asked if they expected any change in the number of their full-time pilots in coming years and, if they did, how much they expected it to increase or decrease.  The average operator responding expected the number of pilots for the organization to increase by 36 per cent in the twelve-month period following the survey.  Over a five-year period, the average operator expected a 61 per cent increase.

 

Since the time of the survey, significant restructuring has taken place in the airline industry and there are prospects for reduced growth in the general economy.  To get a better understanding of how air carriers view the current situation, managers responsible for hiring and training of pilots at 18 Canadian air carriers were interviewed in March of 2001.  The following comments reflect their perceptions of forecast demand for pilots and their implications.

 

Hiring Prospect for Commercial Pilots.  Almost all of the airlines interviewed intended to hire pilots in the next 12 months.  Between them, more than 350 pilots will be recruited.  In the case of Air Canada, hiring was expected to replace retiring pilots, but the prospects of expansion were less clear because of the current economic downturn.  Charter and low-fare airlines are hiring for growth, and expect this to continue for several years, at least.  Regional carriers have generally hired for attrition, as experienced aircrew were recruited by the mainline and charter carriers.

 

Air Canada is the key player in the market.  This statement may seem obvious, but it is true not only in the consumer market, but in the multi-tier market for pilots.  Currently Air Canada employs 2400 pilots . .  Air Canada’s regional airline subsidiaries employ a further 1740 pilots.  Eight airlines employ more than 100 pilots each, but their total employment of 1584 is still significantly lower than the Air Canada regionals.  The relative scale is important because Air Canada’s corporate decision affect not only those airlines whose pilots they recruit, but the companies with which they compete in recruiting.

 

The current market in Canada is still in flux as a result of airline restructuring.  Some effects have been:

Short supply of pilots in the 3500 to 6000 hour range.  In the last year, hiring by Air Canada to bolster its dominance in the transborder market has drained down the supply of captain-grade pilots at the regional airlines.  The higher salaries and improved prospects have lured a significant number of pilots to the mainline carrier.  Some regionals have reported turnovers of 60 percent in the last year.

 

Prospects:  The outlook for the market is subject to strong influences.  The general economic slowdown, evident at the time of writing, has caused concern in capital markets, but its nature and depth is not yet known.  Air Canada has ceased hiring.  At least in the short run, regional carriers have time to recover.

 

New entrant carriers.  The entry of new players into the market and expansion of others has created a strong demand for captain-grade pilots.  Most carriers report that the appropriate level of experience is in the 4000-6000 hour range.  The reason that experience is so important is that, with their anticipated growth rates, the transition time from first officer to captain is greatly reduced.  For safety, and for other institutional reasons, it is desirable that the first-officer cohort (sic) is very experienced.  Total time is not the only important factor; turbojet experience and significant time in a multi-crew complex aircraft are also seen as important.

 

Over time, it is possible that carriers will be less sensitive to the total time of the pilots they hire.  Since hours flown is viewed as an approximation of the quality of the candidate, airlines will always tend to favour more experience over less.  The phenomenon is common to most labour markets.  Once the transition time from first officer to captain slows down, there will be more time to learn on the job.

On the other hand, carriers report that “fit” is increasingly important.  This associated with “people skills” that are increasingly required in complex cockpit environment, but it is also related to attitude to work.  Low-fare airlines often require pilots to engage in activities not generally associated with pilot duties in the rigid unionized environment.

 

Review of Standards.  The shortage has caused most air carriers to review the standards and requirements for hiring during the past year.  Most carriers did not change their standard, but some have relaxed requirements for turbojet experience or total time.

 

Aging pilot demographics.  This problem is unrelated to restructuring and would have occurred in any event.  A large aging pilot cohort at Air Canada and Canadian will have to be replaced in the next decade.  This demand will “pull” pilots through the system.

 

There are several issued raised by this demographic demand:

 

Pilots will have less experience than they would otherwise have had in recent years.  This will be the case throughout the industry, for any given position.

 

Mainline carriers may have to increase training to compensate for lowered experience levels.

Regional and Tier 3 Carriers may experience periods of heavy turnover.  This will result in an increased burden of training.  This situation existed in the Canadian market in the past year and is likely to occur again.

 

The additional training burden for the smaller carriers will be difficult to recoup, as pilots move through their airlines at an accelerated pace.  Some feel that the mainline carriers should share the increased costs.

 

The aging demographic is also seen in other countries.  Canada pilots may be recruited in increased numbers by foreign airlines.  Currently, some Canadian carriers report that desirable pilots are being recruited for Southeast Asian carriers in particular.

 

Some foreign mainline carriers have responded to the shortages by recruiting ab initio trainees and have developed in-house career development programs.